Research
Strategic Narratives in Uncertain Times: Narrative Adoption in the Context of International Crises
At the onset of international crises, domestic populations are often presented with various narratives surrounding them. When presented with multiple strategic narratives about an ongoing international crisis, why do people believe in a particular narrative? Why do people adopt certain beliefs that are presented to them at the expense of others? To answer these questions, this dissertation relies on Affective Intelligence Theory as the core theoretical framework to test how emotions, particularly, anger and anxiety impact information processing of individuals during international crises. The study hypothesizes that in the context of international crises: (1) individuals experiencing anger are less likely to seek out information about the crisis, more likely to rely on their habitual sources, and are less open to persuasion; (2) individuals experiencing anxiety are more inclined to seek out information about the crisis, more likely to con- sider a broader range of sources, and are more open to persuasion. Although there is a multiplicity of actors involved in the narrative creation, this specific project will concentrate on state narratives that are projected abroad. Empirically, the project concentrates on three Eurasian countries (Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) with a possible expansion to other countries in the region. Using the war in Ukraine (2022) as an international shock, I will test my hypotheses using quantitative text analysis (natural language processing) of the projected narratives and an original experiment in three countries.
Soft Power in Hard Times: Strategic Narratives and Public Opinion on the Russia-Ukraine War (with Adam Lenton)
What shapes public attitudes towards foreign wars? While international relations scholarship has acknowledged the importance of narratives in shaping states’ strategic communications and behavior, we know less about how strategic narratives can influence domestic audiences’ attitudes towards foreign affairs, a gap which is especially relevant during major crises such as wars, when sharply diverging narratives compete for support and sympathy of foreign audiences. To address this gap, we consider public opinion towards the Russia-Ukraine War in India, presenting results from an original survey and survey-embedded experiment. Results suggest that different narrative content can influence attitudes towards interstate conflicts. Specifically, framing the conflict as an imperial war of conquest is associated with greater blame of Russia and less blame towards Ukraine, with these effects amplified when the narrative is communicated by an Indian messenger.
Anti-immigrant Attitudes in Russia: Understanding Determinants and Predicting Attitudes
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has become a focal point of attraction for many labor migrants from the former Soviet republics. However, despite its empirical significance the case of Russia remains underinvestigated in the migration literature, especially with regard to public attitudes towards migrants. The existing research tends to overemphasize ethnicity as the primary driving determinant in anti-migrant sentiments. The research on sociotropic and material concerns continues to be siloed, making it hard to assess their relative importance in the Russian context. The paper attempts to investigate attitudes towards immigration in Russia and understand what might drive them using a range of unsupervised and supervised (parametric and nonparametric) machine learning algorithms. I also suggests further steps in pursuing this endeavor.
ANTI-IMMIGRANT ATTITUDES IN RUSSIA UNDERSTANDING DETERMINANTS.pdfHuman Mobility in Central Asia: Defining and Redefining Identity
Human mobility has always been integral to the Central Asian region, although recent scholarship understudies this phenomenon. This project provides a historic overview of human mobility in the region as well as its contemporary trends and challenges. While after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asians were primarily going to Russia for economic opportunities, two recent shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine might change these patterns. The War in Ukraine and subsequent inflow of Russians into the region brought up critical issues pertaining to national identity and belonging in hosting communities.