publications
peer-reviewed articles
-
Does Affective Intelligence Theory Generalize? Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine War.
read abstract
During international crises, domestic populations encounter competing strategic narratives that shape public understanding. Affective Intelligence Theory (AIT) suggests that anxiety disrupts habitual political thinking, prompting individuals to seek more information, engage with a broader range of sources, and exhibit greater openness to counter-attitudinal perspectives. While well-supported in Western democratic contexts, its generalizability remains underexplored. This study tests AIT during an international crisis in Kazakhstan, where residents confront competing narratives about Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I field a preregistered online experiment (n = 649) with a validated anxiety induction and measure information behavior. The results show no significant effects of anxiety on these behaviors, challenging AIT's assumptions. Despite successful anxiety induction, respondents did not seek more information, engage with diverse media, or reconsider prior attitudes. These findings suggest that the predictions of AIT are conditional, highlighting the need to revisit how emotional mechanisms shape information behavior across diverse information environments. -
Elite Narratives and State Response to Kazakhstan's Qandy Qantar Protests.
read abstract
Weeks before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian-led CSTO forces intervened in Kazakhstan's January 2022 Qandy Qantar protests at the government's request. Many observers predicted this intervention would deepen Kazakhstan's dependence on Russia, leading to support for Moscow's invasion. Yet Kazakhstan's subsequent actions defied these expectations. This study examines how the Kazakhstani government strategically framed and managed domestic unrest within a shifting geopolitical context, from initially emphasizing foreign threats to justify CSTO intervention to later reframing reforms as necessary for protecting sovereignty amid global upheaval. Through analysis of evolving state narratives and policy decisions, we demonstrate how great power-centric analysis overlooks the sophisticated ways states navigate asymmetric relationships. This case illustrates the importance of examining how smaller states in asymmetric relationships strategically manage both domestic and international pressures to advance their interests. -
Public Opinion toward Russia's War against Ukraine: Investigating Wartime Attitudes in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
read abstract
How have Central Asian publics reacted to Russia's war against Ukraine? This study assesses overall attitudes toward the war in Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic using survey data from the early days of the war. We find that respondents in Kyrgyzstan are more likely to hold pro-Russian attitudes regarding the war than their counterparts in Kazakhstan. We then examine the relationship between political attitudes and correlates commonly linked to geopolitical preferences generally and pro-Russian attitudes specifically: ethnolinguistic identity, remittances, and media use. Results suggest that ethnic identity holds the strongest and most consistent link to wartime sentiments, with ethnic Kyrgyz and Kazakhs showing less pro-Russian attitudes compared to ethnic Russians. Further results indicate that language and media use are somewhat associated with pro-Russian wartime attitudes, though this relationship varies by context and issue area. Finally, we find limited support for the argument that receiving remittances is associated with political preferences. -
Correcting Misinformation about the Russia–Ukraine War Reduces False Beliefs but Does not Change Views about the War.
read abstract
We report results from simultaneous experiments conducted in late 2022 in Belarus, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. The experiments focus on fact-checking misinformation supportive of Russia in the Russia–Ukraine War. Meta-analysis makes clear that fact-checking misinformation reduces belief in pro-Kremlin false claims. Effects of fact-checks are not uniform across countries; our meta-analytic estimate is reliant on belief accuracy increases observed in Russia and Ukraine. While fact-checks improve belief accuracy, they do not change respondents' attitudes about which side to support in the War. War does not render individuals hopelessly vulnerable to misinformation — but fact-checking misinformation is unlikely to change their views toward the conflict.
book chapters
-
Human Mobility in Central Asia: Defining and Redefining Identity.
read abstract
Human mobility has always been integral to the Central Asian region, although recent scholarship understudies this phenomenon. This chapter provides a historic overview of human mobility in the region as well as its contemporary trends and challenges. While after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asians were primarily going to Russia for economic opportunities, the two recent shocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine might change these patterns. The war in Ukraine and subsequent inflow of Russians into the region brought up critical issues pertaining to national identity and belonging in hosting communities.
book reviews
- Slow Anti-Americanism: Social Movements and Symbolic Politics in Central Asia by Edward Schatz.
other publications
- Kazakhstan's Ambitious Goals Must Include the Eradication of Systemic Violence Against Women.
- Attitudes towards Russia's War on Ukraine in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
- Kazakhstan's Bloody January: Digital Repression on the New Silk Road.
- Kazakhstan's Instability Has Been Building for Years.
- Kazakhstan's Vibrant Alternative Media is Thriving — and in Danger.
- Revolution and Rising Discontent: An Update on the Central Asia Protest Tracker.
- Introducing the Central Asia Migration Tracker.